2014 AL East Starting Pitcher #4’s Preview

bos_g_springts_600x400Hello folks baseball is back in Spring Training and it is time to start grading out the AL East. I’m only doing the AL East to assess where I think the Red Sox sit in their division. We are going to do this fairly scientifically. I’m going to grade each player, at each starting position. The team with the best player at the position gets 5 points, 2nd 4 points etc. Get it? Good, if not go away. Each position gets 2 lists, purely statistical and purely sleeveless. At the end the team with the most points from both lists will be the scientific favorite to win the AL East. Then I’ll wrap it all up and tell if I agree or disagree with science or if I’ll have my own sleeveless prediction.

February 24th, we did catchers! February 25th, we did first basemen! February 26th, we did second basemen! , February 27th, we did third basemen! February 28th, we did shortstops! March 1st we did left fielders! March 2, we did center fielders! March 3, we did right fielders! March 4, we did designated hitters! March 5, we did starting pitcher #1s! March 6, we did starting pitcher #2?s! Yesterday, March 6, we did starting pitcher #3s!

Today, March 8, we do starting pitcher #4’s!

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

S4

NAME

TEAM

WHIP

K%

BB%

WAR

W

SV

ERA

K

1

Peavey

RED SOX

1.15

20.5

6.1

2.4

12

0

4.17

121

2

Nova

YANKEES

1.28

19.8

7.5

2.5

9

0

3.1

116

3

Norris

ORIOLES

1.49

19

8.7

2.7

10

0

4.18

147

4

Archer

RAYS

1.13

19.2

7.2

1.2

9

0

3.22

101

5

Happ

BLUE JAYS

1.47

18.6

10.8

1.2

5

0

4.56

77

SLEEVELESS ANALYSIS

1. Ivan Nova – Yankees

If his K% jumps a point and his BB% drops a point he should be an extremely successful #4.

2. Jake Peavy – Red Sox

Former Cy Young winner could be great backed by Red Sox.

3. Chris Archer – Rays

A minute drop in BB% and slight K% uptick in will make him a great #4 starter.

4. Bud Norris – Orioles

With a better Orioles team he could be a #2 or #3 starter in 2015. He will need to walk less guys.

5. J.A. Happ – Blue Jays

Could become a #2 if everything “clicks“.

AL EAST RANKS

3/8/2014

Starting Pitcher 4’s

Overall

Points

Yankees

9

Red Sox

94

Red Sox

9

Yankees

83

Rays

5

Orioles

72

Orioles

5

Blue Jays

71

Blue Jays

2

Rays

70

SUMMARY

My overall impression of AL East #4 starters is that The Yankees and Red Sox are in a dead heat with the back end of their rotations. This is where the payrolls of each really shows up. Ivan Nova is young, but has both a track record and room to grow. Jake Peavy has, at times in his career, been the best pitcher in baseball. Were he to regain a margin of that form the Red Sox 4 starter could look like an ace. Chris Archer with the Rays will likely be the best of this bunch, but without a long track record I’m hesitant to put him higher on this list. When I think of Bud Norris on the Orioles I worry a bit about him giving up home runs, but he is a bulldog of a pitcher who grinds out innings. J.A. Happ has flashed greatness numerous times, and for decent lengths of time during his career. Were he to put it all together he could prove to be the best of this very good bunch.

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2 thoughts on “2014 AL East Starting Pitcher #4’s Preview

  1. Pingback: 2014 AL East Starting Pitcher #5′s Preview | Hooking Foul

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