The deluge of Daily fantasy has overtaken commercial breaks during every sporting event. They are seared into my brain almost as much as when NESN ran grub killer commercials during every half inning for an entire season of Red Sox games. It was brutal, but I’m not going to lie, my whiffle ball field looked great that year because I used the grub killer and the rest of the Scotts Turf building system. So I know DFS is in our eyes and in our ears, especially if you listen to fantasy football podcasts, to the point we all feel like we are drowning in it, but it is fun to play. While I think there is a large matter of luck to winning the big grand prizes, you can play strategically and win enough that you are paying for each week’s entry fee.
Last week, as I’ve compiled more and more data, I had my best week yet, unsurprisingly. I beat the 200 point threshold and placed in the DraftKings millionaire maker. With that in mind here are my thoughts on week 4.
Lots of people tell you Julio Jones is great, you don’t need anyone else telling you Julio Jones is great. So here is how I’m going to do this differently. I’m going to tell you about guys who have good matchups, because that is about all that is predictable in football.
All the numbers are DraftKings based because while I love kickers in season long, I hate kickers in daily.
There are teams/players not available for most Sunday tickets, Patriots and Titans due to byes, Ravens and Steelers because they played Thursday night and the Dolphins and Jets because they are in London. Those teams/players have been removed to protect the innocent, I mean because you can’t use them.
Those are the 5 best matchups based on points allowed to QBs this season. This doesn’t mean I’d start Weeden or Clausen, but if you wanted to go contrarian you could.
Those are the 5 worst matchups based on points allowed to QB this season. This doesn’t mean don’t start Carson Palmer at home versus the Rams, but it might give you pause because I think there are better matchups you can exploit.
In 2 out of 3 weeks the Falcons have twice given up the most points RBs. The Giants haven’t finished in the top 5 in points allowed to RBs but still fit into the top 5 for the season, that’s hard to do. Start Karlos William if for no other reason than everyone else is going to.
In 2 out of 3 weeks the top 3 has finished in the top 5 meaning those run defenses are very legitimate. And because we are talking about Daily and not Season Long you can avoid all these situations. I didn’t even list the RBs of 3 teams because no one has any idea how many touches each RB will get. So while I know that when your mother told you not to do something you immediately did it, don’t fall into that trap here because I’m not your mother.
The Chiefs have been in the top 5 points allowed against WRs in all 3 weeks this season and they just lost a starting cornerback for the season. The Bills and Eagles have both also been in the top 5 twice. Be wary of Desean Jackson though, he is hurt and may not play. As bad as the Lions secondary has been I don’t know who to play in Seattle.
I’m staying away from all these scenarios. Here is the sneaky play though. The Saints give up a ton of points to QBs, but not WRs. The Cowboys have the league leader in RB receiving out of the backfield. Lance Dunbar ($3600) is a sneaky smart RB play to score on a screen this week.
The Raiders don’t seem to be even trying to cover tight ends. Can Jimmy Clausen get the ball to Bennet? I’m staying away from Larry Donnell because while I like the matchup his hands seem awful and I feel like this is more a WR game or quick screens and slants.
Well I don’t like seeing Greg Olsen there as he is my season long TE, but I’m playing him because he is very good and I don’t think the Bucs are despite the numbers. To be clear I am playing him in season long, NOT daily. Plus who else is Cam Newton going to throw it too?
As far as defenses go my research isn’t complete, but we know who is pretty good and we know who is pretty bad, so pick a defense you think is going to hold people down. Broncos, Panthers, Seahawks are the expensive versions, Redskins, Chargers are on the cheaper side.
So what’s my lineup?
Here you go
So there are some exploitable DraftKings matchups. Best of luck to you in every contest you are in unless we are in the same contest, then I hope you come in second to me! Track my lineups on Draftkings, my username is RiceTwist.