DraftKings Week 4 Preview

The deluge of Daily fantasy has overtaken commercial breaks during every sporting event. They are seared into my brain almost as much as when NESN ran grub killer commercials during every half inning for an entire season of Red Sox games. It was brutal, but I’m not going to lie, my whiffle ball field looked great that year because I used the grub killer and the rest of the Scotts Turf building system. So I know DFS is in our eyes and in our ears, especially if you listen to fantasy football podcasts, to the point we all feel like we are drowning in it, but it is fun to play. While I think there is a large matter of luck to winning the big grand prizes, you can play strategically and win enough that you are paying for each week’s entry fee.

DraftKings_Logo-630x450

Last week, as I’ve compiled more and more data, I had my best week yet, unsurprisingly. I beat the 200 point threshold and placed in the DraftKings millionaire maker. With that in mind here are my thoughts on week 4.

Lots of people tell you Julio Jones is great, you don’t need anyone else telling you Julio Jones is great. So here is how I’m going to do this differently. I’m going to tell you about guys who have good matchups, because that is about all that is predictable in football.

All the numbers are DraftKings based because while I love kickers in season long, I hate kickers in daily.

There are teams/players not available for most Sunday tickets, Patriots and Titans due to byes, Ravens and Steelers because they played Thursday night and the Dolphins and Jets because they are in London. Those teams/players have been removed to protect the innocent, I mean because you can’t use them.  

QBs 

TEAM
PA (SEASON)
WEEK 4 OPPOSING QB

SAINTS
81.16
Brandon Weeden ($5100)

CHIEFS
81.12
Andy Dalton ($5900)

BILLS
70.74
Eli Manning ($7000)

GIANTS
68.2
Tyrod Taylor ($5800)

RAIDERS
68.06
Jimmy Clausen ($5000)

Those are the 5 best matchups based on points allowed to QBs this season. This doesn’t mean I’d start Weeden or Clausen, but if you wanted to go contrarian you could.

 

TEAM
PA (SEASON)
WEEK 4 OPPOSING QB

BRONCOS
22.4
Teddy Bridgewater ($5700)

RAMS
36.26
Carson Palmer ($6800)

CHARGERS
41.04
Josh McCown ($5100)

REDSKINS
42
Sam Bradford ($6000)

COWBOYS
42.48
Drew Brees ($7400)/Luke McCown ($5000)

Those are the 5 worst matchups based on points allowed to QB this season. This doesn’t mean don’t start Carson Palmer at home versus the Rams, but it might give you pause because I think there are better matchups you can exploit.

RBs

TEAM
PA (SEASON)
WEEK 4 OPPOSING RBs

FALCONS
139.1
Arian Foster ($7000)/Alfred Blue ($3900)

CHARGERS
102.2
Isaiah Crowell $$4100)

RAMS
91.2
Andre Ellington ($5400)/Chris Johnson($4500)

JAGUARS
90.9
Frank Gore ($4700)

GIANTS
90.6
Karlos Williams ($3400)

In 2 out of 3 weeks the Falcons have twice given up the most points RBs. The Giants haven’t finished in the top 5 in points allowed to RBs but still fit into the top 5 for the season, that’s hard to do. Start Karlos William if for no other reason than everyone else is going to.  

TEAM
PA (SEASON)
WEEK 4 OPPOSING RBs

SEAHAWKS
40.5
Lions RBs

CHIEFS
40.8
Jeremy Hill ($6500)/Giovani Bernard ($5000)

REDSKINS
41.4
Demarco Murray ($6500)/Ryan Mathews ($3800)

BILLS
51.6
Giants RBs

EAGLES
55.3
Redskins RBs

In 2 out of 3 weeks the top 3 has finished in the top 5 meaning those run defenses are very legitimate. And because we are talking about Daily and not Season Long you can avoid all these situations. I didn’t even list the RBs of 3 teams because no one has any idea how many touches each RB will get. So while I know that when your mother told you not to do something you immediately did it, don’t fall into that trap here because I’m not your mother.

WRs

TEAM
PA (SEASON)
WEEK 4 OPPOSING WRs

CHIEFS
198.2
AJ Green ($7600)/Marvin Jones ($3800)

BILLS
156.6
Odell Beckham Jr. ($9100)/Rueben Randle ($4500)

EAGLES
143.3
Desean Jackson ($5800)/Pierre Garcon ($5300)

49ERS
135.5
Randall Cobb ($7400)/James Jones ($5300)

LIONS
128.9
Doug Baldwin ($4200)/ Pick your poison

The Chiefs have been in the top 5 points allowed against WRs in all 3 weeks this season and they just lost a starting cornerback for the season. The Bills and Eagles have both also been in the top 5 twice. Be wary of Desean Jackson though, he is hurt and may not play. As bad as the Lions secondary has been I don’t know who to play in Seattle.

TEAM
PA (SEASON)
WEEK 4 OPPOSING WRs

BRONCOS
52.4
Mike Wallace ($4400)/Charles Johnson ($3600)

CHARGERS
64.7
Travis Benjamin ($4500)

CARDINALS
73.4
Kenny Britt ($4200)

SAINTS
78.7
Terrence Williams ($4500)

SEAHAWKS
83.2
Calvin Johnson($7500)/Golden Tate ($5300)

I’m staying away from all these scenarios. Here is the sneaky play though. The Saints give up a ton of points to QBs, but not WRs. The Cowboys have the league leader in RB receiving out of the backfield. Lance Dunbar ($3600) is a sneaky smart RB play to score on a screen this week.

TEs

TEAM
PA (SEASON)
WEEK 4 OPPOSING TEs

RAIDERS
87.5
Martellus Bennett ($4500)

SAINTS
64.8
Jason Witten ($4400)/Gavin Escobar ($2500)

GIANTS
62.1
Charles Clay ($3300)

BILLS
53.7
Larry Donnell ($2900)

LIONS
49.8
Jimmy Graham ($6000)

The Raiders don’t seem to be even trying to cover tight ends. Can Jimmy Clausen get the ball to Bennet? I’m staying away from Larry Donnell because while I like the matchup his hands seem awful and I feel like this is more a WR game or quick screens and slants.

TEAM
PA (SEASON)
WEEK 4 OPPOSING TEs

PANTHERS
19.8
I don’t know

COWBOYS
21.5
Ben Watson ($2600)

BUCCANEERS
22.4
Greg Olsen ($5400)

CARDINALS
24
Jared Cook ($3000)

EAGLES
25.5
Jordan Reed ($4500)

Well I don’t like seeing Greg Olsen there as he is my season long TE, but I’m playing him because he is very good and I don’t think the Bucs are despite the numbers. To be clear I am playing him in season long, NOT daily. Plus who else is Cam Newton going to throw it too?

As far as defenses go my research isn’t complete, but we know who is pretty good and we know who is pretty bad, so pick a defense you think is going to hold people down. Broncos, Panthers, Seahawks are the expensive versions, Redskins, Chargers are on the cheaper side.

So what’s my lineup?

Here you go

QB
Andy Dalton
$5900

RB
Karlos Williams
$3400

RB
Lance Dunbar
$3600

WR
Randall Cobb
$7400

WR
AJ Green
$7600

WR
Marvin Jones
$3800

TE
Jimmy Graham
$6000

FLEX
Odell Beckham Jr.
$9100

DST
Bengals
$2800

So there are some exploitable DraftKings matchups. Best of luck to you in every contest you are in unless we are in the same contest, then I hope you come in second to me! Track my lineups on Draftkings, my username is RiceTwist.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *