We continue the search for opportunity and value on DraftKings. As I continue to try and find ways to judge that value I’ve started to think of ways to evaluate ownership %, cost, and points scored. We won’t see the results of those ideas this week, as I’m still in the alpha phase of development, but hopefully soon I can start showing some of the results.
So here I will give you what I see as the top 3 opportunities to score big points on DraftKings at the QB, RB, WR, and TE positions. And then I will give you what I see as the worst 3 opportunities to score big points. There is an element of history to my process, as the numbers that I use will be points allowed by the defense to that position. The position as a whole. So it’s not just the amount of points scored by Odell Beckham Jr versus the Eagles in week 6, it’s the amount of points every Giants WR scored against the Eagles in week 6. I accentuate that point because I think when a team is good or stinks against a position group that a player is likely to get lots of points against that team, and so it represents a good opportunity. We won’t always know which player it will be though.
One other note, I try and pick players you would be considering playing on DraftKings. For example we just saw the Dolphins run all over the Texans. Well the Titans don’t have a feature back, they don’t ever really have a RB by committee, they just have some guys they hand the ball too. So none of them crack the top 3 list because while one may go off, I don’t have a fucking clue who is the best bet.
I won’t always be right. You can see my review of last week’s preview here. So let’s begin! At the end you will find my DraftKings lineup for this week! Challenge me there, my name is RiceTwist. Let me know what you think on Twitter @HookingFoul or by email HookingFoul@gmail.com
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Top 3 QB plays
- Philip Rivers (SD) $6600 vs Baltimore. The Ravens have 3 times been in the top 5 in points allowed (PA) to QBs. And 4 times allowed over 25 points to QBs.
- Matt Ryan (ATL) $7100 vs Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay has thrice been in the top 5 in PA to QBs.
- Cam Newton (CAR) $6800 vs Indianapolis. Indy looks awful and I think Cam’s legs, and arm combine for a big game against the seemingly hapless Colts..
Bottom 3 QB plays
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) $5200 vs. Oakland. I feel like Fitz is due for a clunker and the Raiders pass defense has been sneaky good. Their worst performance was last week in a game they had put out of reach in the first half.
- Jameis Winston (TB) $5200 vs Atlanta. He is so cheap and he has played much better the last two week, but with the Atlanta defense at home and having allowed over 22 points once, I’m staying away from this cheap option.
- Andrew Luck (IND) $7400 vs Carolina. Panthers defense has looked very good against all sorts of teams that are healthy. They also haven’t allowed over 20 points to a QB all year. I expect more of the same against a possibly hurt Luck and drain circling Colts team.
Top 3 RB plays
- Justin Forsett (BAL) $6100 vs San Diego. The Chargers have been in the top 5 PA vs RBs 4 of 7 weeks, and have never allowed less than 24,8 points..
- Todd Gurley (SF) $6300 vs San Francisco. Once once RBs haven’t been held under 20 points, twice they have been in the top 5 PA and 4 times they have allowed over 30 points.
- Doug Martin (ATL) $5500 vs. Atlanta. Atlanta has 4 times been in the top 5 PA to RBs.
Bottom 3 RB plays
- Latavius Murray (NYJ) vs New York (AFC). 3 times the Jets have been in to the bottom 5 of PA. Only once have RBs gone over 20 points scored. The Patriots didn’t even bother running against the Jets last week, I expect the Raiders to try and play a little bit of copy cap here..
- Devonta Freeman (TB) $8000 vs Tampa Bay. The last 3 weeks TB hasn’t allowed RBs to go over 16.5 PA, and were in the bottom 5 in PA.
- Darren McFadden (DAL) $3800 vs Seattle. The Seahawks have 3 times been in the bottom 5 in PA to RB and only once over 26.4 points scored. I want to use McFadden, but I just can’t justify the risk of Seattle coming off its long week in an explosive way.
Top 3 WR plays
- Stefon Diggs (MIN) $4800 vs Chicago. The Bears have 3 times been in the top 5 points against. It’s become the Diggs show in Minnesota and when we last saw the Bears they couldn’t contain the Lions passing game, and the Vikings passing game is better than the Lions.
- Tavon Austin (STL) $4600 vs San Francisco. The 49ers have twice been in the top 5 in PA and 4 times have allowed over 48.8 points scored to WRs. Austin has started to become a nice part of the Rams offense and I think the focus on Gurley could result in some serious running room for the nimble, shifty, fast Austin.
- AJ Green $7600, Marvin Jones $4200 (CIN) vs Pittsburgh. 6 of 7 weeks the Steelers have allowed over 27.9 points to WRs, and have twice been in the top 5. I had a very hard time not using Jones. And if I were going to build a second lineup I would probably put him in first and then build the rest.
Bottom 3 WR plays
- Randall Cobb $7000 (GB) vs Denver. The Broncos has been 3 times in the bottom 5 against WRs and Cobb hasn’t had the TD production to be as consistent as one would hope, so his match up against maybe the best secondary in the league is enough for me to stay as far away from him as possible.
- Ty HIlton $6900 (IND) vs Carolina. The last two weeks the Panthers have been in the bottom 5 in PA.
- Mike Evans $6800 (SD) vs. Atlanta. Atlanta has 3 times been in the bottom 5 in PA and only once allowed over 38.3 points to WRs.
Top 3 TE plays
- Jason Witten $5200 (DAL) vs Seattle. Seattle has twice been in the top 5 for points allowed. 3 times he is over 25.7 PA to TEs. Matt Cassel will rely on Witten as a safety net even more this week, than last week.
- Tyler Eifert $5300 (CIN) vs Pittsburgh. The Steelers have twice been in the top 5 in PA to TE. When the TE is one of only 2 weapons the Steelers can take it away. Eifert is one of several options in the passing game.
- Ben Watson $3500 (NO) vs New York (NFC). The Giants have twice been in the top 5 in PA to TEs and only once have they not allowed double digit points to TEs. I said last week in my review that getting to double digits with your TE is good value.
Bottom 3 TE plays
- Jimmy Graham $5100 (SEA) vs Dallas. Dallas has allowed the fewest total points to TEs all season.
- Gary Barnidge $4700 (CLE) vs. Arizona. So I told you to pause against Barnidge last week and was wrong, but the cardinals who used to be awful against TEs more haven’t allowed more than 16.3 points in a single week.
- Antonie Gates $4800, Ladarius Green $3000 (SD) vs. Baltimore. Baltimore has 4 times been in the bottom 5 in PA and only twice have TEs been in double digits. So no matter which one plays I don’t like them against the Ravens.
So let’s get to my lineup.
QB – Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) $5100 – curveball, not on my list, but the price is so cheap, he had a 300 yard game last week and has been almost 100 yards per game better with Stefon Diggs in the starting lineup.
RB – Matt Forte (CHI) $7300 – another curveball of sorts. I don’t love the matchup, but the pass catching ability of Forte against a good defense gives me no pause in using Forte.
RB – Doug Martin (TB) $5500 – first guy this week from my list of recommendations. I love the matchup and his last 3 games have been great.
WR – Tavon Austin (STL) $4600 – probably my homerun play of the week even though he isn’t a minimum or near minimum priced guy. I’m thinking that Austin will have plenty of room to create a big play and 10-12 chances to do so in different way.
WR – Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) $8500 – the Saints haven’t been good against WRs and while many people don’t believe in the idea of a “homecoming” game, I do. This will be Beckham’s first professional game back in New Orleans where he grew up and went to high school and college. I expect him to show up and show off. (As long as Eli Manning throws him the damn ball, but Eli is from New Orleans too, so I bet he does.)
WR – Stefon Diggs (MIN) $4800 – Diggs has taken over as the dominant WR in Minnesota and the Bears secondary can’t cover anyone physically. They know where they should be, but they just aren’t physically very capable of containing the sort of talent we have seen out of Diggs so far.
TE – Tyler Eifert (CIN) $5300 – I think Eifert has a chance to be wide open multiple times all over the field against a Steelers secondary that has truly struggled when faced with multiple talented options and the Bengals may have the most talented offensive skill position players in the league.
FLEX – Jeremy Hill (CIN) $5300 – Hill is a risky call of sorts because if it becomes a back and forth shootout he could end up with 6 runs for 18 yards. I don’t think the Bengals defense is going to allow that and I can see them wanting to run Hill to kill the clock late in games. As long as he doesn’t fumble.
DST – Rams ($3200) – the 49er mess comes into St Louis and it’s a division game. The Rams play a far better in division games. Kaepernick is a mess, Jim Tomsula is an awful coach and the front office is ready to throw all the blame on the QB. Rams took care of a better team in the Browns last week and I expect nothing less than that sort of game again.
I will be back Tuesday with NFL Summation for week 7 and let you know how I did in the millionaire maker with my lineup and my Top and Bottom 3 at each position! Enjoy the football boys and girls!